Household projections are a useful starting point for calculating housing needs. The latest projections are 2016-based for England, which estimate that 3,970,000 additional households will form between 2016 and 2041. In Wales, it is projected that 140,000 households will form between 2014 and 2039.

The main projection shows how many additional households would form if the population keeps growing as it has historically (e.g. between 2011 and 2016 in England) and keeps forming households at the same rate (e.g. between 2001 and 2011 for England).

Additional analysis has recently been published on the 2016 based household projections for England to assesses the impact of three different migration assumptions and also keeping the household representative rate (HRR) constant from 2022 onwards. This analysis has been published at the request of providers of housing and services so they can better prepare for future changes, particularly in areas of high housing demand.

Households with dependent children are most affected by the variant projections. In England, there are an extra 11,100 households with dependent children under the 10 year migration variant, compared to the main projection (5 year) and an additional 307,600 households with dependent children in the high migration variant, by mid-2041. In the low migration variant there are 309,300 fewer households than the main projection.

Jonathan Hyde

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